CoronaVirus
There was some confusion over what our models, which assumed Omicron had equal "baseline" severity to Delta, meant for severity in practice. This leads to around a 40% reduction in realised severity within each age group, because more Omicron cases are breakthrough/reinfections. pic.twitter.com/iVc1KbxMtH
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
New papers by @imperialcollege (report 50) show that A&E visits among Omicron cases are reduced by 30-40%. The former would be "70% baseline severity" which looks like this in practice (these plots are outputs from our model btw which we will add to the next preprint version) pic.twitter.com/UbZffdubQC
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
The same principle that makes Omicron relatively less severe WITHIN each age/risk group—its better ability to infect those with preexisting protection—will tend to shift the case mix, relative to Delta, AMONG the age/risk groups into those that have relatively better protection.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
To the extent that this shift happens, the overall realised severity across all age groups (i.e. the average IHR) will not decrease as much as the above plots suggest.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
If in South Africa, there was higher protection among young people prior to Omicron, this same effect would tend to *decrease* the IHR resulting from Omicron if it was shifting the average Omicron case younger relative to Delta.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
Hence the importance of testing yourself before seeing your friends and family and before / after going out to places where the risk of transmission is high.
— Nick Davies (@_nickdavies) December 23, 2021
HSE PCR Test Availability Report
This is the worst day on record.
Just 220 left in Donegal. These will run out shortly.
The average wait time for a PCR test is now in excess of 2 days across the country.
About 3,000 appointments/hr are being missed.
gets worse tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/C8ITKZf05w
— Styo Speedman (@Styo28183449) December 23, 2021
New record number of daily cases in Northern Ireland, equivalent to just over 8.5k in Republic @rtenews @FergalBowers @FergalOBrien_ https://t.co/ibQdYHCzjI
— Vincent Kearney (@vincekearney) December 24, 2021
There have been 11,182 new cases of Covid-19 reported by the Department of Healthhttps://t.co/mx7up8xDFo
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) December 24, 2021
Please note that the Covid-19 dashboard and associated Excel data will not be updated from 25 - 28 December or from 1 - 3 January 2022 inclusive.
— Department of Health (@healthdpt) December 24, 2021
The @hpscireland has today been notified of 13,765* confirmed cases of #COVID19.
As of 8am today, 378 COVID-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 87 are in ICU.
— Department of Health (@roinnslainte) December 25, 2021
These data are provisional. @hpscireland and surveillance partners will continue to notify and process cases and outbreaks of #COVID19 on CIDR over this period.
— Department of Health (@roinnslainte) December 25, 2021
The @hpscireland has today been notified of 10,404* confirmed cases of #COVID19.
As of 8am today, 426 COVID-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 91 are in ICU.
— Department of Health (@roinnslainte) December 26, 2021
Possible Omicron cases can be identified by the number of PCR results with ‘S gene target failure’. Using this methodology, we estimate that approximately 87% of reported cases are now due to the Omicron variant.
— Department of Health (@roinnslainte) December 27, 2021
Eligible to get your 1st dose, 2nd dose or booster vaccine?
Why wait? #GetBoostedNow at your local health trust vaccination centre.
Opening times over the holiday period ➡️ https://t.co/IrK3K93zqK#GetBoostedNI
Read ➡️ https://t.co/I7fj8SIMkc@setrust @WesternHSCTrust pic.twitter.com/tgym5kTFex
— Department of Health (@healthdpt) December 28, 2021
The @hpscireland has today been notified of 9006* confirmed cases of #COVID19.
As of 8am today, 521 COVID-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 92 are in ICU.
— Department of Health (@roinnslainte) December 28, 2021
5) Meanwhile here is the parallel surge in kids COVID hospitalizations in England. That is not a random spike— Omicron is definitely hitting unvaccinated hard. https://t.co/iXslA5angu
— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) December 27, 2021
Every patient I’ve seen with Covid that’s had a 3rd ‘booster’ dose has had mild symptoms.
By mild I mean mostly sore throat. Lots of sore throat. Also some fatigue, maybe some muscle pain.
No difficulty breathing. No shortness of breath.
All a little uncomfortable, but fine.
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) December 27, 2021
Most patients I’ve seen that had one dose of J&J and had Covid were worse overall. Felt horrible. Fever for a few days (or more).
Weak, tired. Some shortness of breath and cough.
But not one needing hospitalization. Not one needing oxygen.
Not great. But not life-threatening.
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) December 27, 2021
The point is you’re gonna hear about a LOT of people getting Covid in the coming days and weeks.
Those that have been vaccinated and got a booster dose will mostly fare well with minimal symptoms.
Those getting two doses might have a few more symptoms, but should still do well.
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) December 27, 2021
The unvaccinated. Those who haven’t gotten a single dose of vaccine.
They’re the most likely to need oxygen. They’re the most likely to have complications. They’re the most likely to get admitted. And the most likely to stay in the hospital for days or longer with severe Covid.
— Craig Spencer MD MPH (@Craig_A_Spencer) December 27, 2021